" Let Us Save Our Earth "- Timely Warning by International Scientist

It is a matter of great pride for us that international scientist Dr. Parmjit Singh Sehra has granted us
permission to publish his findings on the most urgent issue of " Global Warming ". Our survival depends on It.
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Climate Change and Global Warming: The first documented major Sudden Stratospheric and
Mesospheric Warmings over Antarctica in 1972


Parmjit Singh Sehra
Department of Agricultural Meteorology
Punjab Agricultural University (PAU)
Ludhiana-141004
Punjab, India
(e-mail: parmjitsinghsehra@hotmail.com)

1. Introduction:

This study has been conducted under a joint Indo-Soviet meteorological rocket sounding programme ratified by the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) of the Government of India and the Hydrometeorological Services (HMS) of the earstwhile USSR in 1970, while I was working as a research scientist at the Physical Research Laboratory (PRL), Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat, India. Under this joint Indo-Soviet agreement, I participitated in the 17th Soviet Antarctic Expedition as its project scientist from 1971 to 1973, and became the first ever Indian to winter over the South Pole and circumnavigate and explore the Antarctic continent. In 1972, about 60 meteorological M-100 rockets were launched from Molodezhnaya station in Antarctica, out of which 52 rocket flights were successful, which was the main data source of this study.

Besides working at the Soviet Antarctic station 'Molodezhnaya', I also visited all the other Soviet Antarctic stations, viz., 'Vostok', the pole of inaccessibility deep inland by covering a distance of about 1500 km by sledge journey from its 'Mirny' station in about two months time, 'Leningradskaya', 'Ruskaya' (the site of a new Soviet station on the Amundsen sea in Antarctica, 'Bellingshausen', 'Novolazarevskaya', etc. During the period 1971-1973, I also visited many other Antarctic stations belonging to other countries, such as 'President Frey' of Chile, 'Scott Base' of New Zealand, 'McMurdo Sound' and the 'Amundsen Scott South Pole station' at the geographic South Pole, belonging to USA, etc. My participation in the Soviet Antarctic Expedition and continuous efforts sparked lot of interest in India for further exploration of Antarctica including opening of some permanent research bases in Antarctica, such as 'Maitri' and 'Dakshin Gangotri' (Editor, 1993).

In a Nowcast (News and Notes) article on 'Papers of Note' published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society - BAMS ( 2005), I was rather surprised to see 'The first documented major stratospheric warming over Antarctica' having been reported by Newman & Nash (2005), whereas such an event was first of all reported by me only (Sehra, 1975, 1976a, 1976b).

This mistake was brought to the notice of Dr. Ted Shephard, Chief Editor of the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences in which this paper (Newman & Nash, 2005) was puiblished, whose response was as follows:

'Dr. Sehra takes issue with the statement in the Newman & Nash's paper published in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences -JAS (2005) that the 2002 event was the 'first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the Southern Hemisphere', citing his Nature paper (Sehra, 1975) as a counter-example'.

'In fact, there were two more papers in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (JAS) special issue of March 2005 - those of Roscoe, et al. (2005), and of Naujokat & Roscoe (2005) - which specifically assessed the observational record going back to the 1950s, to determine if there was any evidence for such an event in the past'.

'It is true that the Sehra (1975) paper was not cited, and this was certainly an unfortunate omission since these authors were trying to consider all available evidence'.

'However, nobody ever claimed that there had never been any warmings in the Southern Hemisphere. The statement by Newman & Nash (2005) referred specifically to major stratospheric warmings........If Sehra wishes to submit a Comment to the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences in this connection, then it could bconsidered'.

2. Discussion:

My comments dated 30th June 2006 to Dr. Ted Shepherd's response are summarised below to which he has not yet replied:

'In fact, the first documented major stratospheric and mesospheric warmings over Antarctica were first discovered and reported by me in my scientific papers entitled 'Upper atmospheric thermal structure in Antarctica', and 'Antarctic atmosphere: Temperature exploration and seasonal variations', published in Nature (1975), and in the Journal of Geophysical Research -JGR (1976b), respectively. My Ph.D. thesis entitled 'Atmospheric Structure: Exploration over Antarctica and Interhemispheric Comparison' submitted from the Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, where I carried out this research, to the Gujarat University, Ahmedabad, India (1976a) also contains a detailed study of this subject amongst my other significant contributions....'

'In my Nature (1974) paper, I have discussed the mesospheric wind results derived for atmospheric altitudes between 50 and 90 km from meteorological rocket flights carried out at Molodezhnaya station (67deg 40min S, 45deg 51min E) in Antarctica for the first time in 1972 under a joint Indo-Soviet agreement. The rapid shifts in both zonal and meridional components of the winds during May to July indicated a sudden 'explosive' change in temperature distribution in the upper mesosphere over Antarctica in the winter regime'.

'I have investigated this phenomenon and extended the study down to the lower atmosphere also, and its results are discussed in my Nature paper (1975) and JGR paper (1976b) with a detailed discussion of the associated wind regimes in my other papers (1976c, 1979). In May 1972, there was a significant warming both in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere with a major 'sudden mesospheric warming' of 49 degrees C at 73 km from May 17 to 24. The warming was followed by a cooling of about 30 degrees C in the lower mesosphere. From June 28 to July 5, another major 'sudden mesospheric warming' of 37 degrees C was detected at 65 km'.

'The upper stratosphere and the lower mesosphere were subjected to an explosive warming from July 5 to 19, with a maximum of 38 degrees C at 55 km, whereas the upper mesosphere underwent a 'sudden mesospheric cooling' which had a maximum value of 55 degrees C at 65 km from July 5 to 12'.

'In August and September, the warming in the mesosphere was less than 27 degrees C, while the stratosphere at 40 km experienced a cooling of 26 degrees C from August 2 to 9 followed by a 'sudden stratospheric warming' of 32 degrees C from August 9 to 16. At 40 km, there was another 'sudden stratospheric warming' of 39 degrees C from September 6 to 20, which was followed by a cooling of 20 degrees C from September 20 to 27'.

'This investigation of the Antarctic upper atmosphere indicates that the most active period in south polar regions is the winter and the early spring: it is marked by large disruptions in the wind and thermal structire. The rapid shifts in both zonal and meridional components of the upper atmospheric winds, particularly during the winter period May to July, were accompanied by sudden changes in the temperature distributions as revealed both by 'sudden mesospheric warmings' and 'sudden stratospheric warmings' with intermediate coolings inbetween'.

'The major 'sudden stratospheric warming' in May propagated upwards, and was followed by the 'sudden mesospheric warming'. The 'sudden stratospheric warming in July followed the 'sudden mesospheric warming', indicating downward propagation of the disturbance which started above 70 km. This leads to the intuitive conclusion that the south polar 'sudden stratospheric warmings' and 'sudden mesospheric warmings' during the winter and early spring periods may be caused both by an increase in the supply of energy in the form of a vertical flux of geopotential energy consisting of very long waves, and by radiative and photochemical processes taking place in the upper atmosphere'.

'During September, when the winter westerlies changed to the summer easterlies, the upper atmosphere was again disrupted with a 'sudden stratospheric warming' of 39 degrees C at 40 km, which is attributed to the increase in available heat brought about by the return of sunlight. It is thus concluded that sizeable perturbations may occur in the upper atmosphere over Antarctica during the winter and spring regimes.'

'The above study was, actually, conducted under the sponsorship of a joint Indo-Soviet meteorological rocket sounding programme ratified by the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE)/Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) of the Government of India and the Hydrometeorological Services (HMS) of the earstwhile USSR in 1970. Under this programme, I participitated in the 17th Soviet Antarctic Expedition as its project scientist from 1971 to 1973, and became the first ever Indian to winter over the South Pole and circumnavigate and explore the Antarctic continent. In 1972, about 60 meteorological M-100 rockets were launched from Molodezhnaya station in Antarctica, out of which 52 rocket flights were successful, which was the main data source of this study. My participation in the Soviet Antarctic Expedition and continuous efforts sparked lot ofinterest in India for further exploraton of Antarctica includingopening of some permanent research bases in Antarctica (Editor, 1993)'.

'In my JGR (1976b) paper, a complete picture of the Antarctic atmospheric temperature exploraton from the surface upto about 80 km altitude is given, and the corressponding wind regimes have been discussed in my other papers published in the Geophysical Research Letters - GRL (1976c), and in the Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan (1979). In this investigation which is an extension of the above study, it has been found that the Antarctic upper atmosphere was subjected to large thermal perturbations during the winter and early spring periods causing major 'sudden stratospheric warmings' as well as 'sudden mesospheric warmings' with larger amplitudes occuring in higher altitudes and smaller amplitudes in the lower atmosphere'.

'It was also found that a differential cooling began in the atmosphere in early autumn which weekened the south polar tropopause and at times wiped it out, a complex quasi-tropopause thus being formed during the winter regime. The Antarctic winter stratosphere was colder than its summer counterpart, while the south polar winter mesosphere in the southern hemisphere was found to be warmer than its summer counterpart. These findings may be due to large scale meridional transport of heat resulting from a mean meridional atmospheric circulation or from large scale eddy processes'.

'In one of my other papers entitled 'Rocketsonde-derived stratospheric temperature changes associated with a major solar cosmic ray event' published in 'Astrophysics and Space Science' journal (Sehra et al, 1981), we have shown that following a major solar proton event which occured early in August 1972, a significant cooling was noticed at high latitudes due to the decrease in ozone concentration there. Inspite of this cooling effect, the Antarctic stratosphere was still subjected to some major 'sudden stratospheric warmings', as described above'.

'So, the first documented 'sudden stratospheric warmings' as well as the 'sudden mesospheric warmings' over Antarctica were first of all discovered and reported by me in my research papers published in Nature (1975) and JGR (1976b), etc., and not by the NASA/USA scientists Newman & Nash (2005) as wrongly published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2005) in its 'Nowcast - News and Notes' section, and in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (2005). The Intellectual Property Rights Organization of the United Nations also requires that my above mentioned pioneering research papers should have been cited in the list of references of a similar study by the NASA/USA scientists Newman & Nash (2005) and the British scientists Rascoe, et al (2005) and the German scientists Naujokat, et al (2005). This is a very serious mistake which needs to be corrected at all cost for upholding the scientific ethics in pursuit of new scientific knowledge and all res earch and development work in science all over the world'.

'Such explosive warmings of the upper atmosphere as evidenced by my above pioneering research findings with the discovery of some major 'sudden stratospheric warmings' and 'sudden mesospheric warmings' over Antarctica about 35 years ago in 1972, do give us some advance clues about the global warmings and climate change, because the whole earth-atmosphetre system which receives its thermal energy primarily from the solar system is intercoupled.Thus, these 'sudden stratospheric warmings' and 'sudden mesospheric warmings first discovered and reported by me in my Nature (1975) and JGR (1976b) papers do have some direct or indirect effect from the global changes in the environment leading to global warmings and climate change, which are very hot research topics these days''.

'The chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFCs) emitted by supersonic aircrafts, refrigerators, prefumes, etc., destroy the stratospheric ozone leading to the formation of an ozone hole over Antarctica and consequently, penetration of ultra violet radiation to the earth's surface causing skin cancer and other problems. The emission of carbon dioxide and other green house gases and tremendous pollution caused by man-made activities such as burning of fossil fuels, excessive use of pesticides and fertilisers in agriculture, industrial and vehicular pollution, paddy and wheat straw burning by farmers, fighting of wars, etc., trap the earth's long wave radiation in the lower layers, thereby, causing global warming and climate change with its adverse implications, as discussed in my recent research papers on climate change (2007a) and atmospheric pollution (2007b)'.

The above serious mistake of not citing my papers and falsely claiming the discovery of some major 'sudden stratospheric warmings over Antarctica' by the NASA/USA scientists, etc., was brought to the notice of the reputed international scientific journal 'Nature' in which I had published my pioneering research findings in 1974 and 1975. Their response in this connection is reproduced below:

'From: , Sent: Thursday, June 28, 2007, 9.17 AM, To: , Subject: Message from Nature. Dear Professor Sehra, Thank you for your letter of 15 June 2007. We do sympathise with your frustration that relevant earlier work of your own was apparently not cited in some recent papers published in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, but I am afraid that there is little that we can do to help. Our usual recommendation in such circumstances is that you contact the editors/authors involved - indeed, you have received a message from the Chief Editor of the Journal, who has provided you with an apology (in the sense that he refers to the omission of a citation to your work as unfortunate). You are of course quite within your rights to disagree with the editor's overall assessment of the situation, but that is ultimately an issue that needs to be resolved between you and that journal'.

'Although we are sorry that we cannot offer more in the way of advice, we hope that you successfully resolve your differences with the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.
Yours sincerely, Kari Ziemelis, Physical Sciences Editor, Nature'.

I do hope that this problem will be ultimately resolved with its publication in your reputed scientific journal.

References:

1. Editorial section. Nowcast - News and Notes, 2005. Papers of Note - First documented major stratospheric warming over Antarctica. Bull. Amer.Meteor.Soc., 86(2):158-161.
2. Editorial section.1993. American Meteorological Society, Boston,Massachusetts, USA. About our members, Parmjit Singh Sehra. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74(1): 122.
3. Naujokat, B. and Roscoe, H.K. 2005. Evidence against an Antarcticstratospheric vortex split during the periods of pre-IGYtemperature measurements. J. Atmos. Sci., pp.885-889.
4. Newman, P.A. and Nash, E. R. 2005. The unusual southern hemisphere winter of 2002. J. Atmos. Sci., pp.614-628.
5. Roscoe, H.K., Shanklin, J.D. and Colwell, S.R. 2005. Has the Antarctic vortex split
before 2002 ? J. Atmos. Sci., pp. 581-588.
6. Sehra, P.S. 1974. Upper mesospheric wind structure in Antarctica. Nature, 252(5485): 683-686.
7. Sehra, P.S. 1975. Upper atmospheric thermal structure in Antarctica. Nature, 254(5499): 401-404.
8. Sehra, P.S. 1976a. Atmospheric structure: Exploration over Antarctica and Interhemispheric comparison. Ph.D. Thesis. Physical Research Laboratory/Gujarat University, Ahmedabad-380009, India, pp. 1-285.
9. Sehra, P.S. 1976b. Antarctic atmosphere: Temperature exploration and seasonal
variations. J. Geophys. Res., 81(21):3715-3718.
10. Sehra, P.S. 1976c. Atmospheric circulation: Exploration over Antarctica and seasonal variations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 3(11): 669-672.
11. Sehra, P.S. 1979. Stratospheric circulation over Antarctica. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 57(4):332-340.
12. Sehra, P.S. 2007a. Climate and its impact on global crop production. J. Maharashtra agric. Univ., 32(1): 133-139.
13. Sehra, P.S., 2007b. Atmospheric pollution: A case study of degrading urban air quality over Punjab, India. Journal of Environ. Science & Engg., 49(1): 22-27.
14. Xanthakis, J., Zerefos, C.A., Sehra, P.S., Repapis, C. and Poulakos, C. 1981. Rocketsonde-derived stratospheric temperature changes associated with a major solar cosmic ray event. Astrophysics and Space Science, 74(2): 475-480.